"Does Tesla give up ternary lithium? Revealing the counterattack of lithium iron phosphate in car companies"

1. Background of the incident: Why did Tesla's "abandonment of ternary" cause an earthquake?

• Data impact: The domestic version of Model 3/Y is fully equipped with LFP batteries (accounting for more than 90% in 2022), while North American models are still dominated by ternary lithium

• Industry reaction: CATL's stock price soared 20% in 3 days (the Q1 financial report of 2023 showed that LFP revenue increased by 200% year-on-year)

• Consumer perception: Model Y's range has dropped from 535km to 445km, but the price has dropped by 20,000 yuan

Key sentence: "Musk's decision to trade range for cost is essentially the ultimate compromise with the Chinese supply chain."

2. Technical confrontation: LFPVS's seven-dimensional competition of ternary lithium

Dimensions Lithium iron phosphate Ternary lithium (NCM/NCA)

Energy density 150-180 Wh/kg 200-250 Wh/kg

Cycle life 2000 times (cost advantage) 1000 times

Thermal stability Self-ignition temperature 800℃ (actual measurement of BYD blade battery) 250℃ (CATL Shenxing battery pack protection)

Cost About $13/kg (2023 data) About $19/kg

Cobalt dependence 0% 10%-20% (MB cobalt price fluctuations directly affect gross profit)

Charging speed 2C fast charge (15 minutes SOC 80%) 4C fast charge (10 minutes SOC 80%)

Policy adaptation Meets China's lithium iron phosphate battery subsidy standards Some models require additional declaration

Experimental data: In the needle puncture test, the LFP battery pack only smoked without open flames, while the ternary lithium module exploded within 5 seconds (China Automotive Technology Research Center 2021 Report)

III. Tesla's calculations: underlying reconstruction of business logic

1. Cost scissors gap

• Single kWh cost difference: 72 (ternary lithium) → 48 (LFP) × 60kWh battery pack = $25,900/car cost savings

• Dilution effect: Shanghai factory's production capacity is 1.2 million vehicles in 2023, and the LFP purchase agreement locks the price until 2025

2. Safety redundancy design

• Structural innovation: BYD's "blade battery" reduces the probability of fire from puncture from 12% to 0% through ceramic coating + honeycomb aluminum plate

• System protection: Tesla's battery management system has added a temperature monitoring chip, and each battery cell is equipped with an independent fuse

3. Geopolitical game

• Cobalt resource crisis: Congo accounts for 69% of the world's cobalt reserves, while China's LFP patents account for more than 70%

• Trade barriers: The US "Inflation Reduction Act" requires subsidies for local 18650 battery production capacity, forcing Tesla's supply chain to "de-risk"

IV. Industry chain reaction: Who is benefiting and who is anxious?

• Winners

◦ CATL: Global LFP market share jumped from 25% in 2020 to 42% in 2023

◦ BYD: Sales of models equipped with blade batteries increased by 300% year-on-year, surpassing Tesla's Shanghai factory

◦ Lithium mining companies: Ganfeng Lithium's stock price was halved (electric carbon price fell from 600,000/t to 170,000/t)

• Anxiety square

◦ CATL CTP technology team: Urgently develop "semi-solid LFP" (energy density exceeds 200Wh/kg)

◦ Northvolt: Swedish factory was forced to postpone production plan due to LFP patent 18650 barriers

◦ Xiaopeng Motors: G9 model's gross profit margin fell by 5.2 percentage points due to its insistence on ternary lithium

V. Guess in the next ten years: LFP's ceiling and breakthrough point

• Technical bottleneck

◦ Energy density improvement path: Nanostructure modification (such as "black phosphorus-based LFP" laboratory data reached 220Wh/kg)

◦ Fast charging breakthrough: GAC Aion AION V achieves "5 minutes of charging and 200km of driving range" (360kW supercharging)

• Recycling revolution

◦ Hydrometallurgy: Huayou Cycle LFP recycling rate exceeds 92%, cost $2.1/kg

◦ Biodegradation: The Qingdao Institute of the Chinese Academy of Sciences has developed a "corn starch-based electrolyte" that can be composted

• Policy variables

◦ EU "New Battery Law": Battery recycling rate is required to be 95% in 2030

◦ China's "14th Five-Year Plan": LFP will account for more than 40% of power batteries in 2025

VI. Conclusion: Not replacement, but reconstruction

"Tesla's choice is not an either-or subversion, but a historic turning point in the global new energy industry from 'performance-driven' to 'cost-driven'."

 When lithium iron phosphate batteries sweep the market with a cost advantage of $0.06 per kilometer (compared to fuel vehicles), 

this battery revolution is redefining the rules of the game in the automotive industry - whoever controls the cheapest energy will control the next decade.